Industry News
IATA for this year's "pessimistic outlook
Publish: 2016-06-04 Views: 914
March 24, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) to update the global civil aviation industry financial data in 2009, the year is expected the industry will lose $ 4.7 billion. As the global economy continues to worsen, the figure is much higher than in December 2008 made $ 2.5 billion loss expected.
This year will be a tough year, IATA said that in 2009 industry revenue is estimated at $ 467 billion, 12.0% reduction, combined $ 62 billion. In 2001, after 9/11, the industry's revenue decreased $ 23 billion in 2000 to 2002 (decrease of approximately 7.5%).
IATA chairman Giovanni Bisignani said: "The situation is very serious aviation industry needs with the economic recession continues to deteriorate, the situation is more serious than predicted a few months ago and we expect 2009 losses. $ 4.7 billion, plus the industry $ 170 billion in debt, pressure on the balance sheet will be more severe. "
IATA demand is expected to fall sharply, the annual passenger traffic is expected to decline 5.7%. First and business class traffic fell further, and to declining revenues is undoubtedly worse. Cargo demand is expected to fall 13.0%. Passenger and freight traffic forecasts are considerably bad made last December were down 3.0% and 5.0% of the expected value.
January data is already fulfilled in 2009 continued deterioration of the forecast. As manufacturers have stopped to digest inventory, transportation will be increased, the air cargo will moderate rebound. However, continued weak consumer and business confidence, resulting in lower overhead and demand for air transport.
Bisignani said: "The outlook depends on the airline's situation economic recovery will be very little data show an early end to the recession in 2009 will be tough year and we hope, by the end of 2009 will improve in 2010... It will be apparent rebound, but it all depends on reality. "
IATA crisis will drive change in the industry believe that the decline in oil prices will help curb bigger losses. Based on projected fuel prices remain in the range of $ 50 per barrel (Brent crude), the industry is expected to fuel costs will drop to 25% of operating costs (2008 average oil price of $ 99 per barrel, accounting for 32% of operating costs ). Coupled with the decline in demand, the estimated total expenditure of fuel will fall to $ 116 billion ($ 168 billion in 2008).
Bisignani said: "The price of fuel is the only good news but the benefits of falling oil prices are being double the decline in demand and revenue overshadowed by the civil aviation industry requiring intensive care airline to face two challenges:... Cash flow management, capacity adjustments. "
IATA also updated the 2008 financial data, the loss from the original $ 5 billion raised to $ 8.5 billion. The fourth quarter of 2008, the airline is very painful, mainly because of a substantial reduction in the huge loss of hedging, two cabins of passenger and cargo traffic.
Bisignani warned that the crisis will inevitably bring change. "There is no change, it is impossible to revive the industry. High toughness of the aviation industry, can quickly stimulate economic growth. However, the structure of the industry actually was sick. The high degree of dispersion of the industry, over the years the profit margin of only 0.3% emergency aid does not allow us to restore health. have access to the global capital markets, mergers and acquisitions and integration, and enter the free market in order to be able to make the aviation industry, like other industries operations and profitability. this is the freedom agenda IATA advocated , and for the purposes of government eager to stimulate their economies, but also an economical and effective way. "
Regional differences were greater IATA Asia-Pacific region, North America, Europe, Latin America, Africa, the Middle East to make forecasts, the Asia-Pacific region is the most pessimistic region, while North America's best performing airline.
Asia Pacific: airline remains the worst affected region, estimated loss of $ 1.7 billion (much higher than the previously estimated 1.1 billion US dollars). Japan as the largest market in the region, is expected in 2009 GDP will decline by 5.5%, exports fell sharply positive. China through price adjustment has been successful in stimulating the domestic market demand; it is expected that demand for international flights in 2009 will decline 5% to 10%. India is expected in 2009 will increase capacity by 0.7%, but demand decreased by 2 to 3%. Overall, demand in the region is expected to decline 6.8%, but the capacity to fall just 4.0%.
North America: the airline is expected in 2009 will be the best performer in the region, the overall profitability of $ 100 million. 7.5% in line with capacity cuts will fall 7.5% demand situation. Although the economy continued to deteriorate, but the data with the previous forecast of $ 300 million profit relatively consistent. Airlines are benefiting from good capacity management and lower oil prices in.
Europe: European airlines are expected in 2009 will be a loss of $ 1 billion. GNP continental European countries is expected to decline 2.9%, resulting in a drop in demand of 6.5%. Capacity cuts of 5.3% rate still can not catch up with the rate of decline in demand will lead to decline in both revenue and profit.
Latin America: Latin America in 2009, although GDP growth will remain, but the demand for commodities collapse, is expected to reduce traffic 7.8%. Airlines are expected to cut capacity by 3.8%, a loss of $ 600 million.
Africa: African carriers are expected in 2009 a loss of $ 600 million, higher than the loss in 2008 six times. African Airlines long-haul gradually losing market share. Demand is expected to decline 7.8% reduction in capacity is only 6.0%.
Middle East: Middle East will be the only regional demand growth is expected in 2009 demand growth (1.2%). But the capacity growth of 3.8% will affect the overall performance. Although this demand growth well below double-digit growth in previous years, but airlines in the region continues to increase capacity. Therefore, the expected airlines in the region will be a loss of $ 900 million ($ 800 million loss in 2008)
This year will be a tough year, IATA said that in 2009 industry revenue is estimated at $ 467 billion, 12.0% reduction, combined $ 62 billion. In 2001, after 9/11, the industry's revenue decreased $ 23 billion in 2000 to 2002 (decrease of approximately 7.5%).
IATA chairman Giovanni Bisignani said: "The situation is very serious aviation industry needs with the economic recession continues to deteriorate, the situation is more serious than predicted a few months ago and we expect 2009 losses. $ 4.7 billion, plus the industry $ 170 billion in debt, pressure on the balance sheet will be more severe. "
IATA demand is expected to fall sharply, the annual passenger traffic is expected to decline 5.7%. First and business class traffic fell further, and to declining revenues is undoubtedly worse. Cargo demand is expected to fall 13.0%. Passenger and freight traffic forecasts are considerably bad made last December were down 3.0% and 5.0% of the expected value.
January data is already fulfilled in 2009 continued deterioration of the forecast. As manufacturers have stopped to digest inventory, transportation will be increased, the air cargo will moderate rebound. However, continued weak consumer and business confidence, resulting in lower overhead and demand for air transport.
Bisignani said: "The outlook depends on the airline's situation economic recovery will be very little data show an early end to the recession in 2009 will be tough year and we hope, by the end of 2009 will improve in 2010... It will be apparent rebound, but it all depends on reality. "
IATA crisis will drive change in the industry believe that the decline in oil prices will help curb bigger losses. Based on projected fuel prices remain in the range of $ 50 per barrel (Brent crude), the industry is expected to fuel costs will drop to 25% of operating costs (2008 average oil price of $ 99 per barrel, accounting for 32% of operating costs ). Coupled with the decline in demand, the estimated total expenditure of fuel will fall to $ 116 billion ($ 168 billion in 2008).
Bisignani said: "The price of fuel is the only good news but the benefits of falling oil prices are being double the decline in demand and revenue overshadowed by the civil aviation industry requiring intensive care airline to face two challenges:... Cash flow management, capacity adjustments. "
IATA also updated the 2008 financial data, the loss from the original $ 5 billion raised to $ 8.5 billion. The fourth quarter of 2008, the airline is very painful, mainly because of a substantial reduction in the huge loss of hedging, two cabins of passenger and cargo traffic.
Bisignani warned that the crisis will inevitably bring change. "There is no change, it is impossible to revive the industry. High toughness of the aviation industry, can quickly stimulate economic growth. However, the structure of the industry actually was sick. The high degree of dispersion of the industry, over the years the profit margin of only 0.3% emergency aid does not allow us to restore health. have access to the global capital markets, mergers and acquisitions and integration, and enter the free market in order to be able to make the aviation industry, like other industries operations and profitability. this is the freedom agenda IATA advocated , and for the purposes of government eager to stimulate their economies, but also an economical and effective way. "
Regional differences were greater IATA Asia-Pacific region, North America, Europe, Latin America, Africa, the Middle East to make forecasts, the Asia-Pacific region is the most pessimistic region, while North America's best performing airline.
Asia Pacific: airline remains the worst affected region, estimated loss of $ 1.7 billion (much higher than the previously estimated 1.1 billion US dollars). Japan as the largest market in the region, is expected in 2009 GDP will decline by 5.5%, exports fell sharply positive. China through price adjustment has been successful in stimulating the domestic market demand; it is expected that demand for international flights in 2009 will decline 5% to 10%. India is expected in 2009 will increase capacity by 0.7%, but demand decreased by 2 to 3%. Overall, demand in the region is expected to decline 6.8%, but the capacity to fall just 4.0%.
North America: the airline is expected in 2009 will be the best performer in the region, the overall profitability of $ 100 million. 7.5% in line with capacity cuts will fall 7.5% demand situation. Although the economy continued to deteriorate, but the data with the previous forecast of $ 300 million profit relatively consistent. Airlines are benefiting from good capacity management and lower oil prices in.
Europe: European airlines are expected in 2009 will be a loss of $ 1 billion. GNP continental European countries is expected to decline 2.9%, resulting in a drop in demand of 6.5%. Capacity cuts of 5.3% rate still can not catch up with the rate of decline in demand will lead to decline in both revenue and profit.
Latin America: Latin America in 2009, although GDP growth will remain, but the demand for commodities collapse, is expected to reduce traffic 7.8%. Airlines are expected to cut capacity by 3.8%, a loss of $ 600 million.
Africa: African carriers are expected in 2009 a loss of $ 600 million, higher than the loss in 2008 six times. African Airlines long-haul gradually losing market share. Demand is expected to decline 7.8% reduction in capacity is only 6.0%.
Middle East: Middle East will be the only regional demand growth is expected in 2009 demand growth (1.2%). But the capacity growth of 3.8% will affect the overall performance. Although this demand growth well below double-digit growth in previous years, but airlines in the region continues to increase capacity. Therefore, the expected airlines in the region will be a loss of $ 900 million ($ 800 million loss in 2008)
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